I started with Flash 5 and many people said Flash will never be good enough and after that I’ve heard many people saying Flash is dying.
A very small part of the dying statement is true.
I believe the market is saturated with Flash portfolios / photo galleries / video players, but Flash is not only that.
I hear many developers who are doing just that and who are complaining about it.
My response is: Try something new! Stop doing the same video/photo galleries every single time and start experiment with different things. The Flash environment has a lot to offer, you don’t need to limit yourself only to galleries and video players.
A lot of those who complain are the stock Flash developers (the ones who sell stuff on ActiveDen and similar marketplaces).
Those people need to understand that any market gets saturated and not all the Flash developers are selling stock files and have a living doing so.
Flash may not be the perfect environment and AcionScript may not be the perfect programming language but I believe a lot of good things can come from Flash if you know how to take advantage of it.
And no, the iPad dose not bring the death of Flash. Not everyone sits on the can to surf the web. And Flash is not limited only to the web.